The represented world
- Policies, treaties, limits, deductibles and exclusions
- Insureds, carriers, reinsurers, brokers and investors
- Claims, reserves, capital and market capacity
Insurance
The event creates the loss. Insurance changes who bears it.
Kindynos follows physical, cyber and catastrophe events into retained loss, claims, reinsurance, ILS, capital and stakeholder consequence—keeping the originating loss and the risk-transfer structure separate.
The questionHow does the originating event become retained loss, transferred loss, asset value and stakeholder consequence?
Where conventional analysis stops
Insurance changes who bears the consequence.
An event creates physical, operational or financial loss. Policy terms, attachment points, exclusions and risk-transfer structures determine how much stays with the insured, how much moves to the carrier, and how much moves again into reinsurance or the capital markets. Kindynos computes those consequences for the parties and positions that can be valued, while preserving explicit unresolved outcomes where required inputs are absent.
Kindynos boundary
Coverage, accumulation & risk transfer
Kindynos incorporates authoritative actuarial and catastrophe outputs, then preserves how coverage, capital and response allocate the resulting consequences.
The represented world
The event matters because it changes a connected system.
Consequence analysis brings together typed entities and objects, concrete state-changing events, explicit relationships and stakeholder-indexed outcomes.
What can change state
- Catastrophe, liability and operational loss events
- Claim, coverage, reserve and recovery events
- Repricing, withdrawal, renewal and capital-response events
What remains traceable
- Gross-to-net loss allocation
- Capital, liquidity and reinsurance incidence
- Capacity, pricing and behavioral feedback
Event → consequence
A concrete event changes more than one system.
Consequences can branch, create new events, and differ in sign and magnitude across stakeholders. Kindynos keeps those branches, relationships and unresolved outcomes visible.
EventLoss-producing occurrence
CoveragePolicy and treaty terms activate
AllocationLoss moves across layers
CapitalBalance sheets and capacity change
ResponsePricing / underwriting changes
Verified cross-domain evidence · Buildings → Insurance
A flood damages a building. Insurance transfers part of the loss.
The same firing keeps the physical and income loss visible while recording an exact business-interruption transfer between building owner and insurer.
ORIGINATING EVENTBUILDING FLOOD
−$5.36Mstructural damage
−$168.4MNOI loss
→
BI TRANSFER
OWNER+$6.55Minsurance recovery
INSURER−$6.55Mclaim payment
Transfer pair = $0 exactly
Verified catastrophe risk transfer
One hurricane. A whole risk-transfer chain.
A $510M modeled insured loss is partitioned into insurer retention and three parallel reinsurance shares, while ILS assets, recoverables, policyholders and a public backstop remain separately represented.
GROSS MODELED INSURED LOSS$510M
PRIMARY RETENTION$120M
CEDED$390M
Reinsurer A
$130MReinsurer B
$130MReinsurer C
$130M
$130MReinsurer B
$130MReinsurer C
$130M
RETRO RECOVERY$0attachment not reached under resolved parameters
$120M + 3 × $130M = $510M
Review the evidence frame →
Verified cyber policy mechanics
The incident loss is not the insured loss.
Given declared cyber incident losses, retention, sublimits, per-claim limits and the aggregate policy determine what the insurer pays and what the insured retains.
BUSINESS INTERRUPTION$60M$50M paid
EXTORTION$9M$4M paid
PII / PRIVACY$25M$20M paid
REGULATORY$15M$0 paid
Scenario-level policy valuation: the incident amounts are declared inputs to the policy waterfall.
Review the evidence frame →Technical depth
Stochastic catastrophe modeling, independently cross-checked.
The Insurance model family keeps the deterministic reference separate from real seeded stochastic cat-bond models. A restored stochastic path nearly reproduces the authored attachment/exhaustion probabilities and agrees with an independent implementation under a common calibration.
SEEDED STOCHASTIC20,000 samples
ATTACHMENT0.0109vs 0.012 authored
EXHAUSTION0.0043vs 0.004 authored
FAIR SPREAD24.44 bps
EL RATE0.227% / yr
Evidence
Reference paths across risk transfer and insurance-linked securities.
Existing Kindynos foundation
Insurance
Kindynos has developed a multi-stakeholder Global Insurance ecosystem with verified reference paths across catastrophe, cyber, Buildings-linked transfer and insurance-linked securities.
A first bounded engagement
One line. One geography. One historical event with a known portfolio outcome.
Use a bounded exposure set, policy/treaty structure and a historical outcome. The bounded engagement reconstructs the chain from event through coverage and accumulation to the parties who ultimately bear the loss, then tests one alternative response.
Reference inputsExposure, policy/treaty terms, historical outcome and claims/actuarial review.
Kindynos buildsEvent-to-coverage-to-capital chain, stakeholder loss allocation and response re-fire.
Pass conditionMaterial portfolio outcomes and attachment/exhaustion logic reconcile to known anchors.
Test boundaryInvented loss relationships are needed, or unmodeled channels disappear inside an aggregate.