Myopic: DUMP. Full horizon: HOLD.
+0.436foresight gap · N=1000
Different time horizons produce different first actions in the verified fire-sale case.
Explore the case →Working technology, made visible
Evidence shows what Kindynos computed.
Public cases connect named events to positions or stakeholders, visible numbers and analytical context. Four cases extend that view into technical verification.
Evidence architecture
Named paths connect claims to results.
Each public case identifies the ecosystem, version, event path and result that support the claim.
Screenshots and case studies show the visible result and analytical context; technical verification traces four cases into the underlying execution record.
Featured consequence evidence
Position. Instrument. Risk transfer. Decision.
Each case proves a different reason the same event can produce different economic consequences.
One issuer event. Different instruments.
−$7.89Bcommon equity DCF
Convertible, call and put positions revalue through their own instrument models.
Explore the case →One loss. An exact transfer pair.
±$6.55Mbusiness-interruption transfer
Recovery to the building owner equals the insurer claim payment exactly.
Explore the case →$510M allocated through retention and cession.
$120M + $390Mretained + ceded
Three parallel reinsurance counterparties carry $130M each.
Explore the case →Incident loss becomes insured and retained loss.
$74M / $35Minsurer pays / insured retains
Retention and sublimits transform the declared incident scenario.
Explore the case →An unsupported actor objective stays unvalued.
+0.730pure-strategy saddle value
The CFO objective is modeled while the regulator utility remains explicit as UNVALUED.
Explore the case →Selected verified screens
Visible results in the operator environment.
These panels are tied to the same named evidence paths used for the public claims.
Verified signal-to-event path
A public signal can be recognized, reviewed and fired into EVA.
In the demonstrated path, a real public-source item was ingested with provenance, recognized as a candidate WILDFIRE event in the US Housing v14 ecosystem, reviewed by an operator, and explicitly fired through EVA's canonical Engine10 path. Recognition itself did not authorize the run.
SourceReal GDELT public-source item
RecognitionWILDFIRE · confidence 0.90
EcosystemUS Housing v14
AuthorityManual operator authorization
EngineCanonical Engine10
Result1 asset row · 10 stakeholder rows · 0 valued asset rows
Run
engine10::5ff7ece9221f16930f46e3313716dc42Receipt
fr_5d1bb6e738e2Boundary: this proof establishes governed event firing, downstream reach and provenance. It is not a valuation proof for the wildfire case: the demonstrated run produced no valued asset row.
A no-match stays a no-match.
A real public-source item that did not map to a modeled event was refused as NO_MATCH_NOT_FIREABLE; no Engine10 run was created. A duplicate firing attempt is also refused unless a deliberate re-fire override is supplied.
Verified BELIEF conditioning
Belief context can condition a declared Engine10 analysis.
A separate controlled proof used a labeled prediction-market fixture. The market-side probability did not directly determine consequence. EVA applied a declared modeling rule that mapped the fused belief value into an Engine10 condition, and stakeholder models consumed that condition.
Same event, neutral condition
HOU_REG_CFPB_ENFORCEMENT_ACTION · US Housing v9
Servicer −$180.0M
CFPB +$100.0M
Borrower / taxpayer +$800 each
run engine10::3797452967d123fc0d71ad375ac79f55
Declared condition consumed
p_fused = 0.618846 → regulator_enforcement_posture = 1.618846
Servicer −$291.392M
CFPB +$161.885M
Borrower / taxpayer +$1,295.08 each
run engine10::f8e1d98eb6166fd668da230cb8ca1682
What this proves: a BELIEF-derived factor can be mapped through a declared rule to an Engine10 condition and affect the event analysis. The prediction-market input is evidence; the explicit modeling transformation defines how it enters consequence computation. This does not mean BELIEF fires events or that market probability directly determines severity.
Accepted mortgage evidence · 16 August 2026
Three mortgage mechanisms on frozen execution paths.
The Housing evidence family shows state transformation, operational consequence and contractual incidence across several named execution paths.
An event changes the mortgage before it changes the valuation.
Forbearance Lifecycle. Servicing advances, interest capitalization and re-amortization change the represented schedule before six downstream positions are revalued.
$8,480 capitalized$11,596 advancesIO + PO = pass-through
Read the case study → · Technical verificationThe same cash can produce different consequences when servicing state changes.
Payment Misapplication. Cash received is held constant; erroneous application creates suspense, false delinquency, a late fee and a servicer advance before correction restores the account.
$2,199 same cash$2,199 suspense$1,799 advance
Read the case study →The same payoff creates different consequences for a security, servicing right and guarantor.
Agency & Guarantee Payoff. Principal redemption, premium P&L, fee-stream termination and capital release remain separate accounting consequences.
$351,089 principal−$12,181 MSR$2,107 capital release
Review the evidence frame →Additional accepted pathsVA Assumption State Matrix · Force-Placed Insurance · REMIC Prepayment validation
EVA · observed interface evidence
The operator environment behind the evidence.
These operator captures show application behavior across US Housing, Global Equity, Global Buildings and Global Insurance, linking visible interfaces to named analytical paths.
Home Sale and Payoff → stakeholder consequence
One selected event is carried through valuation details into stakeholder-specific financial consequences, preserving the model path and typed status for each row.
Open full capture ↗
React → mark → propagate → reverberate
A decision path is shown through reactive actors, dollar consequences, state-conditioned propagation and a reflexivity view rather than as a single static score.
Open full capture ↗
HVAC failure crosses physical and financial claims
Asset revaluation and direct stakeholder channels appear together for the building owner, insurer, property manager, tenant, service vendor and workforce.
Open full capture ↗
Major Hurricane Landfall — asset valuation
CAT_BOND_BOOK moves from approximately $54.52M to $49.37M. Other rows remain explicitly UNVALUED where no supported valuation is available.
Open full capture ↗
Event catalogue with research attached
The captured world exposes 221 events across 26 categories; the selected Home Sale and Payoff event opens its authored causal description alongside the catalogue.
Open full capture ↗
Model coverage is explicit, including gaps
The valuation-model surface shows model identity, library, level, version, inputs and outputs—and visibly distinguishes WIRED coverage from an UNREGISTERED model.
Open full capture ↗
An event viewed through the stakeholder network
The SEC Enforcement Action is placed inside the equity-world relationship graph, with event description and affected network structure available in the same operator surface.
Open full capture ↗
Payoff choice and consequence mapping are separate
A minimax decision selects a reaction from the payoff matrix while the consequence panel separately shows which action outcomes are VALUED, NO_EVENT or UNMAPPED.
Open full capture ↗
Different actors carry different objectives and actions
Persona calibration, a named utility family and guarded actions make the decision problem actor-specific rather than treating the institution as one homogeneous optimizer.
Open full capture ↗
Operational failure inside a dense institutional network
An HVAC system failure is located among owners, tenants, insurers, lenders, vendors, utilities, regulators and service providers before the impact analysis is run.
Open full capture ↗
Feedback can change the verdict
The interface exposes reflexivity, amplification, fired couplings and feedback-loop state, culminating here in a displayed BACKFIRED verdict for the selected path.
Open full capture ↗
Regulation is represented as part of the world
The captured registry exposes named authorities, regulations and affected stakeholders alongside the event and asset structures of the housing ecosystem.
Open full capture ↗Operator capturesThese captures show application behavior for the named ecosystem, version and path at capture time. Version-specific compatibility is tracked separately.
Technical verification
Four cases trace visible results into the execution layer.
Together these four cases demonstrate state transformation, optimization, multi-party allocation, cross-domain transfer and reproducible execution.
State changes first; six positions revalue afterward.
The forbearance path records servicing advances, capitalization and re-amortization before downstream loan, pass-through, IO, PO, MSR and guarantee-fee consequences. The technical record preserves the source freeze, model path and request/response identity.
Myopic DUMP and full-horizon HOLD survive 1,000-path evaluation.
The same authored fire-sale scenario is evaluated by two decision methods. The technical verification records the seed, path count, values, Monte-Carlo uncertainty, first-action disagreement and policy-gate status.
$510M reconciles across retention and three parallel reinsurance shares.
The path reconciles $120M retained plus three $130M ceded shares, records the retrocession treatment and ties the result to a named Insurance freeze.
A physical event crosses industry domains and produces an exact transfer pair.
The flood path carries physical damage and income loss into an insurance consequence. The $6.55M owner recovery and insurer payment reconcile exactly, with valuation status preserved for the remaining inputs.
MCP interoperability evidence
The interface changed nothing analytical.
The canonical request was executed directly and through a real MCP server subprocess. One thousand eight hundred and fifty-six fields were compared; not one differed.
Approved EVA tools
33returned by live tools/list
Direct EVA = MCP EVA
1,856fields compared · 0 mismatches
Out-of-scope stays out
TOOL_NOT_ALLOWEDstructured refusal, not improvisation
Reference call: US housing home-sale payoffLoan −$383,540.05 · servicing right −$12,180.61 · byte-identical run identifier across the direct and MCP paths. Exact values remain in the MCP evidence.
Open the MCP proofCoverage with provenance
From applicable to verified.
Each public proof identifies the event, positions or stakeholders, key numbers and execution context. The four technical cases add deeper provenance.
Applicable
Is this capability meaningful for this world, version and event path?
Wired & exercised
Do the registrations, routes, bindings and required models resolve—and has the path actually run?
Verified
Is there a named, reproducible result strong enough to support a public demonstration?
Public evidence foundation · 16 August 2026
Want to inspect how a result is produced?
Explore the four verification paths for the execution layer, or bring a consequential event of your own and define the path that matters.